Spatiotemporal Pattern of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in South Kerala: A Population-based Study

Background: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common endocrine cancer and has been increasing over the past decades worldwide. A notable finding is that Kerala’s capital Thiruvananthapuram ranks the first among men and the second highest among women in the incidence of TC in India. Reasons for this increase have not been established. Objectives: Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of TC incidence in Thiruvananthapuram. Materials and Methods: TC incidence data (n = 1937) of Population Based Cancer Registry Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India, between 2012 and 2016, were analyzed for identifying geographical patterns by spatial methods, temporal methods for studying spatial variation in TC incidence, distribution of age, gender, and histology in lowland (coastal), midland, and highland. Results: Spatial clustering of TC incidence was identified consistently near the coastal region based on all geospatial analyses. 56.9%, 23.9%, and 19.2% of TC cases were observed in the coastal, midland, and highland areas, respectively. A significant clustered pattern of TC incidence was revealed by Moran’s index I (0.49), high-high clusters by local Moran’s, hotspot by Getis-Ord-Gi* (P < 0.05), point pattern analysis by nearest neighbor ratio and kernel density estimation. The relative risk of the significant cluster was obtained as 1.60 (95% confidence interval: 1.03–1.84) by SaTScan analysis. Conclusion: This study identified spatial variations in the pattern of TC cases with significant clusters near the coastal region of Thiruvananthapuram. This would help to pinpoint the high-risk geographical areas of TC and for more effective cancer control programs.

Study on the correlation between air pollution and acute cerebrovascular diseases in Jining / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, and NO2, and their effects on acute cerebrovascular diseases in Jining City. Methods The data of patients with acute cerebrovascular disease treated in a 3A hospital in Jining from October 1, 2017, to November 31, 2019, were retrospectively collected. Combined with the air pollution data of 29 air quality monitoring stations in Jining City, the Kriging interpolation model was used to analyze the overall situation of air pollution in Jining. On this basis, the relationship between air pollution and acute cerebrovascular diseases in Jining City was analyzed. Results In Jining City, the incidence of acute cerebrovascular disease in male was higher than that in female, and the incidence in rural areas was significantly higher than that in urban areas. The spatial distribution showed a trend of gradual accumulation from southeast to northwest. The daily average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were higher in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. The results of Kriging interpolation analysis showed that the concentrations of these air pollutants formed aggregation points in varying degrees. The spatial distribution of acute cerebrovascular disease patients in Jining City was highly consistent with the spatial distribution of air pollutant concentrations. Spearman correlation analysis showed that CO, SO2, and NO2 were positively correlated with the incidence of acute cerebrovascular disease, while the correlation between PM2.5 and PM10 and the incidence of acute cerebrovascular disease was not significant. Conclusion Some air pollutants such as CO, SO2, and NO2 have a positive correlation with the incidence of acute cerebrovascular disease, and the prevalence has a certain population and regional distribution. In the future work of cerebrovascular disease prevention, personal protection should be done according to local conditions and living environment of specific people.

Distribuição espacial e temporal do suicídio no nordeste do brasil / Spatiotemporal distribution of suicide in northeastern brazil / Distribución espacial y temporal del suicidio en el noreste de brasil

RESUMO Objetivo: analisar o padrão espacial e temporal da mortalidade por suicídio no Nordeste do Brasil no período 2008-2018. Método: estudo ecológico que utilizou dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, do Ministério da Saúde - Brasil. A tendência temporal foi avaliada pelo método Joinpoint. A formação de aglomerados espaciais de suicídio foi avaliada pela função de autocorrelação espacial e técnica estatística de varredura Scan puramente espacial. Resultados: a maioria dos óbitos ocorreu entre indivíduos do sexo masculino (79,5%), pardos (76,8%), solteiros (59,2%), de 20 a 49 anos (61,7%). Observou-se crescimento estatisticamente significativo do suicídio em seis dos nove estados nordestinos (p<0,05). De acordo com a função de autocorrelação espacial e estatística Scan, os aglomerados espaciais de óbitos estavam localizados predominantemente no Piauí e Ceará. Conclusão: os achados reforçam a necessidade de se direcionarem as estratégias de prevenção do agravo para os municípios de maior ocorrência. DESCRITORES: Suicídio; Mortalidade; Análise Espaço-Temporal; Estudos Ecológicos; Epidemiologia.

ABSTRACT Objective: to identify the sociodemographic profile of interpersonal violence associated with alcohol consumption in São Paulo-SP, Brazil. Method: a cross-sectional study carried out through notifications of suspected or confirmed cases of interpersonal violence from the Notifiable Diseases Information System submitted between 2016 and 2019. Collection took place between March and June 2020. Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests were performed in the statistical analysis. Results: 27,775 notifications were obtained, whose prevalent profile was female victims (60.6%), aged between 20 and 34 years old (41.4%), brown- or black-skinned (51%), and with complete high school (18.8%). Physical violence was more frequent (81.9%), perpetrated by an intimate partner (20.3%), motivated by sexism (9.9%) and generational conflict (11.2%). In sexual violence, rape prevailed with 69.4% and there was a low supply of emergency contraception methods (14.7%). Conclusion: the study contributes to reflections and subsidies in the planning of public policies to control the problem.

RESUMEN Objetivo: analizar el patrón espacial y temporal de la mortalidad por suicidio en el Noreste de Brasil en el período 2008-2018. Método: estudio ecológico que utilizó datos del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad, Ministerio de Salud - Brasil. La tendencia temporal se evaluó mediante el método Joinpoint. La formación de clústeres espaciales de suicidio se evaluó mediante la función de autocorrelación espacial y la técnica estadística puramente espacial Scan. Resultados: la mayoría de las muertes se produjeron en individuos de sexo masculino (79,5%), de raza mixta (76,8%), solteros (59,2%), de 20 a 49 años (61,7%). Se observó un aumento estadísticamente significativo de los suicidios en seis de los nueve estados del noreste (p<0,05). Según la función de autocorrelación espacial y las estadísticas de Scan, los clústeres espaciales de muertes se localizaron predominantemente en Piauí y Ceará. Conclusión: los resultados refuerzan la necesidad de dirigir las estrategias de prevención del cáncer a los municipios de mayor incidencia.

Who was affected by the shortage of penicillin for syphilis in Rio de Janeiro, 2013-2017? / A quem afetou o desabastecimento de penicilina para sífilis no Rio de Janeiro, 2013-2017?

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the shortage of benzathine penicillin G (BPG), characterizing its temporal evolution and spatial distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro from 2013 to 2017. METHODS This ecological study used gestational and congenital syphilis notifications, BPG distribution records, and sociodemographic data from the population of Rio de Janeiro. To quantify the shortage, a BPG supply indicator was estimated per quarter for each neighborhood between 2013 and 2017. Thematic maps were created to identify areas and periods with greater BPG shortage, described according to sociodemographic factors, health services network, and epidemiological features in the incidence of syphilis. RESULTS BPG shortage in Rio de Janeiro from 2013 to 2017 was not homogeneous in space nor in time. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of BPG scarcity shows that the shortage affected the inhabitants of the municipality in different ways. Shortage was lower in 2013 and 2016 and more severe in 2014, 2015, and 2017, particularly in neighborhoods within the programmatic areas PA3 and PA5, poorer and with higher prevalence rates of gestational and congenital syphilis. CONCLUSIONS Analyzing BPG shortage and its temporal evolution and spatial distribution in Rio de Janeiro allowed us to realize that the inhabitants are affected in different ways. Understanding this process contributes to the planning of actions to face shortage crises, minimizing possible impacts on the management of syphilis and reducing inequality in access to treatment.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar o desabastecimento da penicilina benzatina (PB), caracterizando sua evolução temporal e distribuição espacial no município do Rio de Janeiro de 2013 a 2017. MÉTODOS Trata-se de estudo ecológico misto realizado com notificações de sífilis gestacional e congênita, registros de distribuição de PB e de dados sociodemográficos da população dos bairros do município do Rio de Janeiro. Para mensurar o desabastecimento foi calculado por trimestre um indicador de abastecimento de PB para cada bairro, entre 2013 e 2017. Mapas temáticos foram produzidos para identificar áreas e períodos com maior desabastecimento de PB, o qual foi descrito segundo condições sociodemográficas, rede de serviços de saúde e aspectos epidemiológicos da incidência de sífilis por bairro. RESULTADOS O desabastecimento de PB no município do Rio de Janeiro, no período de 2013 a 2017, não foi homogêneo no espaço ou no tempo. A evolução temporal e a distribuição espacial da escassez de PB revelam que o desabastecimento afetou de formas distintas os habitantes do município, sendo menor em 2013 e 2016 e mais intenso em 2014, 2015 e 2017, principalmente nos bairros das áreas programáticas AP3 e AP5, mais pobres e com maiores taxas de sífilis gestacional e congênita. CONCLUSÕES Analisar o desabastecimento de PB e sua evolução temporal e distribuição espacial no município do Rio de Janeiro permitiu reconhecer que os habitantes do município são afetados de diferentes modos. Compreender esse processo ajuda a planejar ações para enfrentar crises de desabastecimento, minimizando possíveis impactos no controle da sífilis, além de reduzir a desigualdade no acesso ao tratamento.

Dinâmica espaço-temporal da dengue no Distrito Federal, Brasil: ocorrência e permanência de epidemias / Dengue spatiotemporal dynamics in the Federal District, Brazil: occurrence and permanence of epidemics

Resumo O Distrito Federal (DF) apresenta características particulares que favorecem a introdução, reprodução, disseminação e permanência do vetor e dos vírus da dengue. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar os padrões espaço-temporais das epidemias de dengue nas Regiões Administrativas (RAs) do DF no período de janeiro de 2007 a dezembro de 2017. Utilizando o modelo da série parcial de Fourier, obteve-se uma assinatura sazonal da série temporal, o que permitiu calcular indicadores de permanência (número de anos epidêmicos, número de meses epidêmicos por ano, proporção de meses epidêmicos do período) e tempo/momento das epidemias (mês do pico epidêmico). Contabilizou-se um total de 82 epidemias nesse período. As RAs com maior número de anos epidêmicos foram Varjão (5 epidemias), Gama, Lago Sul e Sobradinho (4 epidemias). Essas últimas três RAs também tiveram as maiores proporções de meses epidêmicos de todo o período de estudo (nove). Verificou-se que as RAs com função de centralidade urbana possuem pico epidêmico mais cedo que as demais, nos meses de fevereiro e março. As epidemias apresentaram altos valores de permanência em RAs com diferentes tipos de ocupação, ressaltando-se a necessidade de considerar os processos de organização social do espaço nos estudos da distribuição da dengue.

Abstract The specific characteristics of the Federal District (DF) favor the introduction, reproduction, dissemination, and permanence of dengue vector and viruses. Here, we aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of dengue epidemics in the Administrative Regions (RAs) of the DF from January 2007 to December 2017. We used Fourier partial series model to obtain a seasonal signature of the time series, which allowed calculating indicators of permanence (number of epidemic years, number of epidemic months per year, the proportion of epidemic months for the period) and time/moment of epidemics (month of epidemic peak). A total of 82 epidemics were recorded in this period. The RAs with the largest number of epidemic years were Varjão (5 epidemics), Gama, Lago Sul, and Sobradinho (4 epidemics). These last three RAs also had the highest proportions of epidemic months of the entire study period (9 epidemic months). The RAs with urban centrality function had an earlier epidemic peak than the others, in February and March. Epidemics showed high permanence values in RAs with different types of occupations, emphasizing the need to consider the social organization of space processes in dengue distribution studies.

Spatial and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Congenital Malformations of Nervous System in the State of Paraíba from 2010 to 2016 / Análise espacial e espaço-temporal das anomalias congênitas do sistema nervoso no Estado da Paraíba entre os anos de 2010 a 2016

INTRODUCTION: In Brazil, congenital malformation anomaly of the nervous system has been the most frequent among the anomalies. Knowledge of your geographical distribution both in space as throughout the time, can assist public managers in the decision-making process about the areas that must be prioritized for the monitoring of this disease. OBJECTIVE: Detecting spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of congenital malformations of nervous system. METHODS: An ecological study based on secondary data from the National Information System on Live Births in the period from 2010 to 2016 in the state of Paraíba. We estimated the spatial incidence ratios and applied circular and spatio-temporal Scan statistics to detect clusters with of abovementioned malformations. RESULTS: The spatial pattern was different throughout the years of the occurrence of these malformations, since the spatial clusters were detected on different regions of the state, except in the years 2013 and 2015, which revealed a higher concentration in the central-west and northwest regions of the state. The retrospective spatio-temporal analysis revealed three clusters that persisted during the years of 2015 and 2016. CONCLUSION: The findings indicated the regions that must be prioritized for the monitoring of congenital malformations of nervous system in the state of Paraíba in time and space.

INTRODUÇÃO: No Brasil, a anomalia congênita do sistema nervoso tem sido a mais frequente dentre as anomalias. O conhecimento da sua distribuição geográfica, tanto no espaço quanto ao longo do tempo, pode auxiliar os gestores públicos no processo de tomada decisão sobre as áreas que devem ser priorizadas no monitoramento dessa doença. OBJETIVO: Detectar aglomerados espaciais e espaço-temporais das anomalias congênitas do sistema nervoso. MÉTODO: Estudo ecológico a partir de dados secundários do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos no período de 2010 a 2016 no estado da Paraíba. Foram estimadas as Razões de Incidências Espacial e aplicada a estatística Scan circular e Scan espaço-temporal para a detecção dos aglomerados das anomalias citadas anteriormente. RESULTADOS: O padrão espacial foi diferente ao longo dos anos da ocorrência destas anomalias, uma vez que os aglomerados espaciais foram detectados em diferentes regiões do estado, exceto nos anos 2013 e 2015 que foi verificada uma maior concentração nas regiões do centro-oeste e noroeste do estado. CONSLUSÃO: Os achados indicaram as áreas que devem ser priorizadas para o monitoramento de anomalias congênitas do sistema nervoso no estado da Paraíba, tanto no tempo quanto no espaço.

Analysis of cervical cancer mortality rate trends in Natal-RN, Brazil, between 2000 and 2012 / Análisis de las tendencias de la tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en Natal-RN, Brasil, entre 2000 y 2012

ABSTRACT Objective To describe cervical cancer mortality rates and their corresponding trends, and to analyze the spatial correlations of this type of cancer in Natal-RN, Brazil, between 2000 and 2012. Materials and Methods The simple linear regression model, the empirical Bayes method and the Global Moran's index were used for the statistical analysis. Results The mortality coefficient of cervical cancer in Natal, standardized by age range, was 5.5 per 100 000 women. All historical series for the coefficients studied were classified as stable. The Global Moran's index obtained was 0.048, with a p-value for the spatial test correlation between neighborhoods of 0.300. The average family income by neighborhood showed no significant correlation to cervical cancer mortality rates. Conclusion This study found a temporal stabilization and spatial independence trend of cervical cancer mortality rates in women from Natal, as well as the absence of correlation between these rates and the average family income of the of the participating women distributed by neighborhoods. In view of this, changes in the public policies should be made aimed at preventing the disease; adopting these measures could positively impact the screening program, improving the coverage of Pap smears and immunization campaigns against HPV, in order to reverse this trend and achieve a reduction of mortality rates.(AU)

RESUMEN Objetivo Describir las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino y sus tendencias, así como analizar las correlaciones espaciales de este tipo de cáncer en Natal-RN, Brasil, entre 2000 y 2012. Materiales y Métodos Para el análisis estadístico se utilizaron el modelo de regresión lineal simple, la estimación empírica de Bayes y el índice Moran Global. Resultados La tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en Natal, estandarizado por rango de edad, fue 5.5 por cada 100 000 mujeres. Todas las series históricas para los coeficientes estudiados se clasificaron como estables. El índice Moran Global obtenido fue 0.048, con un valor p de 0.300 para la correlación de prueba espacial entre vecindarios. El ingreso familiar promedio por vecindario no mostró correlación significativa con las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino. Conclusión En este estudio se observó una tendencia temporal de estabilización e independencia espacial de la tasa de mortalidad por cáncer cervical en mujeres de Natal, así como la ausencia de correlación entre estas tasas y el ingreso familiar promedio de las mujeres participantes, distribuidas por vecindarios de la ciudad. En vista de esto, se sugiere que se adopten cambios en las políticas públicas dirigidas a la prevención de la enfermedad que apunten a medidas que puedan tener un impacto positivo en el programa de monitoreo, mejorando la cobertura de la prueba de Papanicolaou, así como de las campañas de vacunación contra el VPH, con el objetivo de revertir esta tendencia y lograr una reducción en las tasas de mortalidad de la enfermedad.(AU)

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Event-related Current Density Reveals Dissociable Effects of Arousal and Valence on Emotional Picture Processing

BACKGROUND: The processing of emotional visual stimulation involves the processing of emotional and visuoperceptual information. It is not completely revealed how the valence and arousal affect these two aspects. The objective was to investigate the effects of valence and arousal on spatiotemporal characteristics of cortical information processing using distributed source imaging of event-related current density (ERCD). METHODS: Electroencephalograms (64 channels) were recorded from 19 healthy men while presenting affective pictures. Distributed source localization analysis was adopted to obtain the spatiotemporal pattern of ERCD on cortical surface in response to emotional visual stimulation. A nonparametric cluster-based permutation test was used to find meaningful time and space without prior knowledge. RESULTS: Significant changes of ERCD in 400–800 ms among positive, negative, and neutral emotional conditions were found in left posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) and right inferior temporal cortex (ITC). In the PCC, the stimuli with higher arousal levels showed more negative ERCD than neutral stimuli. In the ITC, the ERCD for negative stimuli was significantly more negative than those of positive and neutral ones. CONCLUSION: Arousal and valence had strong influence on memory encoding and visual analysis at late period. The location and time showing significant change in neural activity according to arousal and valence would provide valuable information for understanding the changes of cortical function by neuropsychiatric disorders.

Análise espacial da distribuição de pênfigo vulgar e foliáceo no âmbito de três bacias hidrográficas presentes no nordeste do Estado de São Paulo e a relação com fatores ambientais / Analysis of the spatial distribution of pemphigus vulgaris and pemphigus foliaceus under three watersheds present in the northeastern state of São Paulo and the relationship with environmental factors

Focos geográficos bem definidos de pênfigo prevalecem no mundo todo, inclusive no Brasil. Nas últimas décadas vem sendo estudada a possibilidade de fatores ambientais participarem do desencadeamento da doença. A região nordeste do Estado de São Paulo, onde localizam-se três Bacias Hidrográficas, apresenta prevalência de duas formas clínicas do pênfigo, pênfigo vulgar (PV) e pênfigo foliáceo endêmico (PFE) sendo uma importante área para o estudo da doença. Nesse estudo, foi utilizado um Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG) para descrever a distribuição espacial e o comportamento temporal de PV e PFE nessa região do Estado de São Paulo nas últimas cinco décadas e caracterizar o uso e ocupação do solo no município com maior número de ocorrências de pênfigo. Os pacientes foram identificados baseados nos prontuários médicos entre 1965 e 2014. Os mapas temáticos foram desenvolvidos com o software ArcGIS 10.2. Para representar a distribuição espacial do pênfigo, os mapas foram organizados em décadas de 1965 a 2014. Para o município com maior número de ocorrências de PV e PFE, o uso e ocupação do solo, de acordo com a hidrografia, a vegetação nativa, à área agrícola, o solo exposto e a área urbana, foi analisado em um raio de 2 km no entorno da residência dos pacientes no momento do surgimento dos sintomas. Como análise adicional, mapas ilustrando a distribuição dos casos de pênfigo de acordo com as classes hipsométricas, declividade do solo e densidade populacional por distrito do município (Norte, Sul, Leste, Oeste e Central) foram também desenvolvidos. Quatrocentos e vinte e seis casos foram analisados. Os casos de PFE predominaram, com 285 (67%) dos casos. De acordo com a distribuição espacial e evolução temporal, PV não foi reportado de 1965 a 1974, entretanto, os casos de PV tiveram um aumento contínuo nas próximas décadas e ultrapassou o número de casos de PFE na última década. Analisando de forma acumulada os casos, tanto o PV quanto o PFE tiveram aumento ao longo do período estudado, revelando uma expansão espacial. A Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Pardo teve o maior número de casos com um total de 153 (41% PV e 59% PFE). No período de 1965 a 2014 o número de cidades com registros de casos de PV e PFE aumentou de 0 para 49 e de 13 para 60, respectivamente, com Ribeirão Preto e Batatais sendo os principais focos geográficos de PV e PFE, respectivamente. Ribeirão Preto foi o município com maior ocorrência de pênfigo (35 casos de PV e 37 casos de PFE). A área agrícola (42%) e o solo exposto (33,2%) foram os usos do solo que predominam no município. Além disso, todos os pacientes com PV ou PFE moram perto de rios e área agrícola. Em Ribeirão Preto, os casos de pênfigo estão concentrados nos distritos norte e oeste, os casos de PFE estão distribuídos em baixas altitudes quando comparadas com o PV e tanto o PV quanto o PFE predominam em áreas com baixa porcentagem de declividade do solo. No contexto da saúde pública, o SIG se tornou uma importante ferramenta que ajuda os pesquisadores entenderem a ocorrência e tendência de certos eventos, conduzindo nas melhores estratégias de controle de doenças. As análises de distribuição espacial e evolução temporal mostraram que os casos de PV e PFE aumentaram na região nordeste do Estado de São Paulo nas últimas cinco décadas. Esse monitoramento também ajudou a identificar os principais focos geográficos de pênfigo nessa região. A predominância de agricultura e solo exposto em Ribeirão Preto e a proximidade dos casos com rios e agricultura reforça a hipótese de que os fatores ambientais desempenham um importante papel na etiopatogênese do pênfigo

Defined foci of pemphigus prevalence worldwide, including Brazil, raise the possibility that environmental factors trigger the onset of this disease. The northeastern region of the state of São Paulo is located within three Watersheds and is an appropriate site to investigate pemphigus because this disease is prevalent in both clinical forms--endemic pemphigus foliaceus (PFE) and pemphigus vulgaris (PV)--therein. In this study, we have used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to describe the spatial distribution and temporal behavior of PV and PFE in this region of the state of São Paulo over the last five decades; we have also characterized land use in the city with the highest number of cases. Patients were identified based on patients' medical records between 1965 and 2014. Thematic maps were developed with the ArcGIS 10.2 software. To represent the spatial distribution of pemphigus, maps were organized in decades from 1965 to 2014. For the city with the highest occurrence of PFE and PV cases, land use regarding hydrography, native vegetation, agriculture, exposed soil, and urbanization was analyzed within a 2-km buffer surrounding from the patients' residencies considering the address where the pemphigus clinical signs and symptoms started. For additional analysis, thematic maps illustrating the distribution of pemphigus cases according to hypsometric classes, soil declivity, and population density by sector (North, South, East, West, and Central) were designed. Four hundred and twenty-six cases were analyzed. PFE cases predominated: they corresponded to 285 or 67% of the cases. Regarding spatial distribution and temporal evolution, PV was not reported from 1965 to 1974; notwithstanding, PV rose in the following four decades and overcame the number of PFE cases in the last decade. Regarding cumulative cases, both PV and PFE increased throughout the studied period, which revealed spatial expansion. The Pardo River Basin had the highest number of cases with a total of 153 (41% PV and 59% PFE). In the studied period, the number of cities with recorded cases of PV and PFE increased from 0 to 49 and from 13 to 60, respectively, with Ribeirão Preto and Batatais being the main geographical foci of PV and PFE, respectively. Ribeirão Preto was the city with the highest occurrence of pemphigus--35 PV cases and 37 PFE cases. Agricultural area (42%) and exposed soil (33.2%) were the land uses that predominated in the city. In addition, all patients with PV and PFE lived close to rivers and agricultural areas. In Ribeirão Preto, pemphigus cases were concentrated in the northern and western sectors; PFE cases were distributed at lower altitudes as compared to PV; and both PV and PFE predominated in areas with lower percentage of declivity. In the context of public health, GIS has become a powerful tool that helps researchers to understand the occurrence and trend of some events, leading to improved interventional strategies and disease control. The spatial distribution and temporal evolution analyses showed PV and PFE increased in the northeastern region of the state of São Paulo over the last five decades. This monitoring also helped to identify the main geographical foci of pemphigus. The predominance of agriculture and exposed soil in Ribeirão Preto and the proximity of the cases to rivers and agriculture reinforced the hypothesis that environmental factors play a role in pemphigus etiopathogenesis

Is Cytomegalovirus Involved in Recurring Periods of Higher than Expected Death and Medical Admissions, Occurring as Clustered Outbreaks in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres?.

A series of clustered infectious-like events have been recently documented in both the northern hemisphere (Canada, UK [England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales], all countries in the European Union, and the USA) and the southern hemisphere (Australia and New Zealand), in which both deaths and emergency admissions for a range of medical conditions appear to simultaneously rise in a step-like manner, stay high for a period of 12 to 18 months, and then revert back to the expected time trajectory. These unique events are also observed in very small geographical areas within the population area of a single hospital or Primary Care Organisation (PCO), and this precludes explanations based on acute thresholds to admission or to PCO funding, procedures and practice. These events have been overlooked by traditional health surveillance methodologies, simply because it was assumed that neither deaths nor medical admissions could behave in this unique way. Indeed, in the UK it has been widely assumed that the increases in medical admissions arising from these events are solely due to deficiencies in the organization and delivery of health and social care, often labelled as ‘failure to manage demand’. Based on the spectrum of medical conditions which are associated with the increased admissions and deaths, it has been proposed that the ubiquitous herpes virus, cytomegalovirus (CMV), may in some way be associated with these outbreaks. This involvement could be either by (re-)infection with a new strain, or by opportunistic reactivation in the presence of another agent. This review will examine if CMV is indeed capable of causing substantial increases in both deaths and medical admissions, and which conditions in particular would be affected.

Spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Adamantina, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION : Several municipalities of the Western region of the State of São Paulo have been affected by human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL), including the City of Adamantina, where the first autochthonous cases occurred in 2004. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of HVL in Adamantina. METHODS : Secondary data regarding the occurrence of HVL in Adamantina between 2004 and 2011 were used. Incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates were calculated. We used local empirical Bayesian incidence rates to represent the occurrence of the disease in the census sector of the city. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of cases was evaluated using scan statistics. In situ observation was performed to assess the socioeconomic and environmental characteristics of the areas with medium and high incidences. RESULTS : Adamantina reported cases in 70% of its census sectors. No differences were observed between sexes. The group aged 0-4 years presented the highest incidence and mortality rates, and the group aged 40-59 years presented the highest fatality rate. We detected a spatiotemporal cluster, which coincided with the commencement of the endemic in the city. CONCLUSIONS : The individuals most affected by the disease were children. The disease was present in areas with better and worse socioeconomic conditions. The use of spatial analysis techniques was important to achieve the study objectives.

Spatiotemporal rrends of cases of pandemic influenza a(h1n1)pdm09 in Argentina, 2009-2012 / Tendencias espacio-temporales en los casos de gripe A(H1N1)pdm09 en Argentina, 2009-2012

The aim of this paper was to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Argentina. A space-time permutation scan statistic was performed to test the non-randomness in the interaction between space and time in reported influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases. In 2009, two clusters were recorded in the east of Buenos Aires Province (May and June) and in the central and northern part of Argentina (July and August). Between 2011 and 2012, clusters near areas bordering other countries were registered. Within the clusters, in 2009, the high notification rates were first observed in the school-age population and then extended to the older population (15-59 years). From 2011 onwards, higher rates of reported cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred in children under five years in center of the country. Two stages of transmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 can be characterized. The first stage had high rates of notification and a possible interaction with individuals from other countries in the major cities of Argentina (pattern of hierarchy), and the second stage had an increased interaction in some border areas without a clear pattern of hierarchy. These results suggest the need for greater coordination in the Southern Cone countries, in order to implement joint prevention and vaccination policies.

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar las variaciones espaciotemporales de los casos de gripe A(H1N1)pdm09 en Argentina. Se realizó un escaneo estadístico espacio-temporal por permutaciones para poner a prueba la no aleatoriedad en la interacción entre espacio y tiempo de los casos registrados de gripe A(H1N1)pdm09. Durante 2009 se identificaron dos conglomerados espacio-temporales, en el este de la provincia de Buenos Aires (mayo y junio) y en la mayor parte del centro-norte de la Argentina (julio y agosto). Durante 2011 y 2012 se registraron conglomerados próximos a zonas limítrofes con otros países. Al interior de los conglomerados, primero se observaron mayores tasas de notificación en población de edad escolar para luego extenderse a población mayor (15-59 años). A partir de 2011, las mayores tasas se observaron en menores de 5 años residentes en el centro del país. Se pudieron caracterizar dos etapas de transmisión espacio-temporal de la gripe A(H1N1)pdm09. La primera etapa se caracterizó por altas tasas de notificación y una posible interacción con individuos provenientes de otros países llegados a las grandes ciudades de la Argentina (patrón de jerarquía). La segunda etapa mostró una mayor interacción en algunas zonas fronterizas y sin un patrón claro de jerarquía. Estos resultados plantean la necesidad de generar una mayor coordinación en países del Cono Sur, con el objetivo de implementar políticas más efectivas de prevención y vacunación.

Spatiotemporal analysis of reported cases of acute Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2002 to 2013

INTRODUCTION: Control strategies to eliminate the transmission of Chagas disease by insect vectors have significantly decreased the number of reported acute cases in Brazil. However, data regarding the incidence and distribution of acute Chagas disease cases in the State of Pernambuco are unavailable in the literature. METHODS: A geographical information system was used to delineate the spatiotemporal distribution profile of the cases from 2002 to 2013 in 185 municipalities of Pernambuco based on the municipality where notification occurred. The results were presented in digital maps generated by the TerraView software (INPE). RESULTS: A total of 302 cases of acute disease were recorded in 37.8% of the municipalities, for a total of 0.13 cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants per year. Out of the 302 cases, 99.3% were reported between 2002 and 2006. The most affected municipalities were Carnaubeira da Penha, Mirandiba and Terra Nova. The risk maps showed a significant decrease in the number of notifications and a concentration of cases in the Midwest region. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights a significant decrease in new cases of acute Chagas disease in Pernambuco starting in 2006 when Brazil received an international certification for the interruption of vectorial transmission by Triatoma infestans. However, control strategies should still be encouraged because other triatomine species can also transmit the parasite; moreover, other transmission modes must not be neglected. .